Partly cloudy with an (infinitesimal) chance of satellite
According to NASA, there is a 1 in 3200 chance that somebody will be hit by a satellite on Friday. So what is the probability that an individual person (for example, you) will be hit?
p(somebody is hit) = 1/3200
p(nobody is hit) = 3199/3200
Assuming that the each individual has an equal chance of being hit (and such events are independent),
p(nobody is hit) = p(you’re not hit)7x109
p(you’re not hit) = (3199/3200)1/(7x109) = 0.999,999,999,999,95537
p(you’re hit) = 1-p(you’re not hit) = 4.4631x10-14 = 1 / 22,405,968,295,375
So, your individual odds of being hit by the satellite are 1 in 22.406 trillion.
